Military Coup in Guinea-Bissau: Army Seizes Power Amid Disputed Elections

Military Coup in Guinea-Bissau: Army Seizes Power Amid Disputed Elections

In a dramatic escalation of political tensions, the armed forces of Guinea-Bissau announced a military takeover on 26 November 2025, arresting President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and suspending the country’s ongoing electoral process. The coup, led by Brigadier General Dinis Incanha, head of the Military Office of the Presidency, marks the ninth such intervention in the nation’s fragile history since independence from Portugal in 1974. As the dust settles, international observers and regional bodies have issued sharp condemnations, raising fears of further instability in a region already battered by a wave of military seizures.

The Precipitous Takeover

The events unfolded rapidly in the capital, Bissau, on Wednesday afternoon, just one day before the National Electoral Commission (CNE) was scheduled to release official results from the 23 November presidential and legislative elections. Heavy gunfire echoed near the Presidential Palace, the electoral commission headquarters, and the Interior Ministry, prompting residents to flee the streets.  Eyewitnesses reported soldiers in uniform erecting checkpoints and sealing off key roads leading to government buildings.

By early evening, a military spokesman appeared on state television, flanked by armed officers, declaring that the army had assumed “total control” of the country.  The announcement cited the need to restore “national security and public order” amid what they described as electoral irregularities and threats to democratic processes. President Embaló, who was seeking a second term despite earlier pledges not to run, was detained at approximately 1:00 p.m. in his office, according to statements attributed to him by French media outlet Jeune Afrique. (Al Jazeera)

He reported no violence during his arrest but confirmed the plot was orchestrated by Incanha.

The junta, formalized as the “High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order,” immediately imposed a nationwide curfew from 7:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m., closed all borders, and grounded flights at Osvaldo Vieira International Airport.  Internet access was disrupted in parts of Bissau, and public gatherings were banned to prevent unrest. By Thursday morning, the military had installed Army Chief of Staff Major-General Horta Inta-A as transitional president, swearing him in during a televised ceremony for a one-year mandate aimed at stabilizing the nation.

Opposition candidate Fernando Dias, leader of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), swiftly rejected the coup’s legitimacy, claiming preliminary results indicated his victory and accusing Embaló of staging the events to manipulate the outcome.  “I am the president-elect of Guinea-Bissau,” Dias declared from an undisclosed location, urging supporters to protest peacefully for the release of results.  Civil society group Popular Front echoed these sentiments, labeling it a “simulated coup” designed to allow Embaló to retain influence by appointing a compliant interim government.

A History of Instability

Guinea-Bissau, a coastal nation of roughly 2 million people nestled between Senegal and Guinea, has long been synonymous with political volatility and economic hardship. Since gaining independence in 1974, it has endured four successful coups and at least five attempts, including two targeting Embaló in 2022 and 2023.  The last successful putsch occurred in 2012, leading to a brief military regime before ECOWAS-brokered elections.

Embaló’s tenure, which began in 2020 after a contentious 2019 vote, has been marred by allegations of authoritarianism. Critics accused him of fabricating coup plots to justify dissolving parliament in 2023 and ruling by decree.

According to Guardian News,

His legitimacy was further questioned after his term officially expired in February 2025, yet he proceeded with the delayed elections. The 23 November polls, originally slated for earlier, saw high turnout but immediate claims of victory from both Embaló and Dias, heightening pre-coup tensions. 

Compounding these issues is Guinea-Bissau’s role as a notorious transit hub for cocaine shipments from South America to Europe, fueling corruption and undermining governance.  Experts warn that the coup could exacerbate this “narco-state” dynamic, potentially inviting external influences, including from Russia, amid the Sahel’s shifting alliances.  The country ranks among the world’s poorest, with widespread poverty and limited access to basic services, making any prolonged transition period particularly precarious.

International Condemnations and Regional Fallout

The coup has drawn swift rebukes from global and regional actors. The African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, “unequivocally condemned” the takeover, demanding the “immediate and unconditional release” of Embaló and other detained officials, including electoral commissioners.  A joint statement from AU, ECOWAS, and West African Elders Forum observers decried the disruption, noting it occurred just after meetings with candidates who pledged to respect the results.

ECOWAS, under Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio’s chairmanship, labeled the events a “grave violation” of constitutional order and a threat to regional stability, vowing its zero-tolerance policy on unconstitutional changes.  Heads of state from Nigeria, Senegal, Liberia, and others convened virtually to strategize, with potential sanctions on the horizon.  The European Union echoed calls for restoring the vote count and constitutional rule.  Portugal, the former colonial power, urged restraint to avoid “institutional or civic violence.”

On social media platform X, reactions poured in, with users like @PabloBach highlighting the AU and ECOWAS demands for releases, and @globalafrikan calling on African leaders to intervene for election transparency.   Diaspora communities and analysts expressed skepticism over the coup’s authenticity, fearing it could entrench Embaló’s allies.

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Looking Ahead: Uncertainty Looms

As of Thursday, Bissau remained tense but calm, with soldiers patrolling streets and many residents indoors despite the curfew’s lift.  The junta’s ban on protests has stifled immediate dissent, but opposition calls for demonstrations persist. International election monitors, including former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, were briefly stranded but have since been evacuated.

This ninth coup in West and Central Africa over five years underscores the fragility of democratic gains in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea.  Analysts predict ECOWAS mediation efforts, but historical precedents suggest prolonged uncertainty. For Guinea-Bissau’s people, the path to stability hinges on whether the ballot or the barrack ultimately prevails.